WAR AND PEACE: RUSSIA, TURKEY, AND THE DOMESTIC DIMENSION OF CONFLICT PERPETUATION, CESSATION, AND RESOLUTION IN THE CAUCASUS

James W. WARHOLA, Egemen B. BEZCİ
1.428 492

Öz


The political landscape of the Caucasus region has changed dramatically since the initial eruption of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in the late 1980s-early1990s. Among other changes, Turkey and Russia have experienced a rapprochement in the 2000s that places them in a strong position to influence both the political leadership and the mass publics of Azerbaijan and Armenia to open negotiations with a new willingness to consider hitherto unacceptable solutions to the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. Because of the domestic political tension-ratcheting knot within both Armenia and Azerbaijan that make concessionary approaches to N-K politically suicidal, external influence is essential. It is precisely here that Turkey and Russia are now – unlike earlier -- uniquely and fortuitously positioned: Turkey is arguably in as effectual a position to influence Azerbaijan as Russia is to influence Armenia. Again, the Russian-Turkish rapprochement has changed the calculus of prospective resolution decisively, if not inevitably.

Keywords: Nagorno-Karabakh, Russia, Turkey, conflict-resolution, Caucasus,
Minsk Group, OSCE.

 

Savaş ve Barış: Rusya, Türkiye ve Kafkaslar Sorununun İç Siyaset Boyutu
Özet
Kafkasya bölgesinin siyasi ilişkileri Dağlık-Karabağ sorununun ortaya çıktığı
1980'lerin sonu ve 1990'ların başından günümüze büyük ölçüde değişmiştir. Bu
değişimlerin arasında önemli bir yer ise 2000'li yılların başından giderek artan
Türkiye ile Rusya arasındaki yakınlaşma politikasıdır. Türkiye ve Rusya'yı Dağlık-
Karabağ sorununun çözümünde özellikli bir yere konumlandıran dinamikler ise bu iki
ülkenin Azeri ve Ermeni siyasi liderliğini ve kamuoyunu Dağlık-Karabağ sorununun
çözümü doğrultusunda etkileme güçleridir. Azerbaycan ve Ermenistan'ın iç siyasetinin
içerisinde bulunduğu kör düğüm ve Dağlık-Karabağ sorunu etrafında gelişen hassasiyet
nedeniyle soruna uzlaşmacı bir çözüm yolunu dış ülkelerin müdahalesine muhtaç hale
getirmektedir. Tam da bu noktada Türkiye ve Rusya'nın ilişkilerinin gelişmesi ve
Rusya'nın Ermenistan Türkiye'nin ise Azerbaycan üzerindeki etkin rölü bu iki ülkeyi
geçmişin aksine çözüm sürecinde biricik bir konuma yerleştirmiştir.
Anahtar Kelimeler: Dağlık-Karabağ Sorunu, Rusya, Türkiye. Kafkasya, Minsk
Grubu, AGIT.


Anahtar kelimeler


Dağlık-Karabağ Sorunu, Rusya, Türkiye. Kafkasya, Minsk Grubu, AGIT.

Tam metin:

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